December 22nd, 2009 — economics -
A review of 2009 and a look forward to what we might expect for UK economy in 2010
A look back at the past decade – The Economics of the Naughties
- A decade which brought us everything from NINJA mortgages to Quantitative easing and a new meaning of the phrase ‘economic stability’
December 16th, 2009 — uk housing market -
UK House Prices 2007-09
Source: BBC – UK House Prices
The Council of Mortgage Lenders CML have stated that given the uncertainty surrounding the housing market they will not be making any predictions for house prices at the moment. Certainly, forecasting UK House prices can be a tricky issue.
The depth of the crash in 2007-08 caught many commentators by surprise. But, then few were predicting house prices would rise in 2009. And much to everyone’s surprise they have risen every month since spring 2009.
Low Interest Rates.
The cut in interest rates to 0.5%, is one of the main reason many homeowners have been able to hang onto their homes. It explains why mortgage defaults have been lower than in the last housing crash. Given state of the economy and the degree of spare capacity, interest rates are likely to remain low throughout 2010. (see: Interest rate predictions) If inflationary pressures do occur (and there is little sign of real inflation apart from cost push factors), taxes will rise rather than interest rates.
Also, more people will be coming to the end of fixed term mortgages so may be able to remortgage at lower rates than before. With low interest rates continuing in 2010, this should encourage buyers – at least those who are able to get a mortgage.
Mortgage Supply
Perhaps more important than house prices, is the number of property transactions. According to HMRC, the number of completed sales rose from a low of 40,000 in January to 90,000 in October. This suggest mortgage lending is slowly being relaxed, and buyers are slowly returning to the market.
Falling Prices and Confidence
The rise in house prices we have seen in 2009, may well encourage more people to put their property on the market, this increase in supply could depress prices, but, at the same time, the fact prices have stopped falling so sharply may mean banks are less strict about requiring very large deposits. If banks and consumers feel the worst of the crash is over, it will encourage more people to buy and more banks to lend. Many people are feeling now is a good time to buy.
Growth and Unemployment
This has been the longest recession (six quarters of negative growth) since the Great Depression, but, unemployment has risen less than expected (see: why is unemployment not higher?) This muted rise in unemployment has been a big factor in stabilising prices. 2010 should see a sluggish economic recovery, unemployment will take a long time to fall, but, if it does peak soon, that will definitely help the UK Housing market.
Long Term Fundamentals
House prices in the US, are still falling nearly 4 years since they first started to fall in 2006. Why should the UK be any different? Well one reason is the excess supply in US and the continued shortage of supply in UK. House price to income ratios are still above long term trends, but, there is also still a long term shortage of housing. Whilst this occurs, UK house prices will continue to be more expensive than other countries
In April 2008, I suggested despite short term factors, in the long run, house prices could well rise to £300,00 in the next 10 years. (see long run forecasts) This is not necessarily a good thing, but, it could well happen
December 14th, 2009 — housing, uk housing market -
In recent memory we have had two housing boom and busts. There are many similarities, but, also quite a few differences.
Differences in Housing Crashes:
1. Length of Time
The housing bust of 1990 lasted for nearly five years. By contrast, 2009 saw an unexpected rise in prices bringing an end to falling house prices after only two years. Some suggest this rebound in prices is premature and house prices will resume a downward fall in 2010. Nevertheless it is quite a significant rebound in prices (even based on very thin trading volumes, which might be distorting prices) If the current crash follows the last one, we might expect another two years of falling prices.
2. Interest Rates.
The huge difference between the two housing busts is the level of interest rates. The 1990 bust was caused primarily because of the very high levels of interest rates (reaching 15% at their peak). This made mortgages very expensive causing record levels of mortgage default. By contrast, the current bust is against a backdrop of 0.5% interest rates. The low interest rates mean that mortgage defaults have been lower than last time. Less people have been having difficult with payments.
One consequence of this is that payment problems may merely delayed until later in the cycle when interest rates rise.
Housing Payments
Source: Financial report on British Households 2009 by NMG. pdf
This shows a much lower level of households are experiencing problems with housing payments than in 1991.
3. Credit Crunch
The current crash has led to a sharp reduction in the volume and number of mortgages available.
4. Depth of Recession
The current recession is much deeper than the 1991-92 recession. Currently, GDP has fallen by 6% and lasted six consecutive quarters, which is a sharper and more long lasting fall than in 1991. However, despite the deeper recession, the housing crash (so far) has not been as sharp as in 1991. This suggests levels of interest rates are more important than economic growth in influencing nature of housing market.
5. Affordability
At the end of the crash in 1995 the ratio of house prices to earnings for FTB fell to just over 2.1. By contrast, the ratio of house prices to earnings for FTB is still over 4.0. Suggesting house prices are still overvalued.
The big question is whether 2009, really is the end of the housing crash or whether it is just a temporary pause before higher unemployment push prices much lower.
Related
December 13th, 2009 — uk housing market -
Artificial hips help the ageing and infirm, but government Hips for property owners seem to help no one except the hips purveyors. Estate agents think they are discouraging sellers as they have to pay up front for a Hip and this ‘discourages the market testers who may have sold if the deal was right’.
1. Energy performance certificate
2. A Property Information Questionnaire
3. Evidence of title
4. Local Authority searches
5. Drainage and water searches
6. Leasehold information
7. Sales particulars
Not included: all the legal documents a solicitor needs prior to exchanging contracts.
A hip lasts until the house is sold. If it is taken off the market for less than 12 months and put back on, the same HIP may be used. But, if it is taken off for 12 months or more you will need a new one.
Anyone marketing a house in England and Wales (Scotland Excluded). e.g. if you sell to a family member directly there is no need to get a HIP. But, if you put a for sale sign in window, you need to commission one.
1. It takes time to prepare a Hip and whilst some aspects can be done in parallel in some areas you need to start 3 months before you want to sell.
2. The cost of a hip can vary from £200- £500 for a similar property. You do not need to buy your Hip from your high street estate agent. According to Which you should shop around for a better price.
3. You still need a solicitor to ensure you acquire clean title to the purchased property.
4. Buyers may still need to conduct extra searches on top of the Hip. This can reveal other issues with local authorities like parking regulation changes or lack of planning permissions for gardens.
5. Searches for Hips can go out of date before the property is sold.
6. Energy performance certificates seem to be disregarded by potential buyers.
Hips should speed up the selling process but that is still fraught with delays at your solicitor.
A new government may scrap the present scheme and bring in a more comprehensive but none compulsory‘ Ready Pack’ containing all the legal documents and draft contracts.
Sales that are currently excluded from HIP regulations including, sales that are not marketed, Right to buy schemes, mixed properties may be brought into a scheme.
For more information for Buyers, Sellers or the industry professionals read the Direct Gov web site
November 27th, 2009 — mortgage news -
Mortgage lending is slowly recovering, though it is still a long way down on the pre-bust levels. Total net lending, which strips out redemptions and repayments, now stands at £3.1 billion pounds 4.6 percent higher than last year. According to, The British Bankers Association, 42,238 loans were approved for people buying a property in October. This is nearly double the number seen last year and the highest level since January 2008. The amount of net lending is subdued because many are taking the opportunity to overpay repayments.
The reality of low long term interest rates is helping fixed rate deals to come down. After peaking at 5.15% this summer, average two year fixed mortgage deals have fallen below 5% for the first time since the summer.
Remortgaging which was very popular during the boom years has fallen considerably. Many are now opting to stay on a lenders standard variable rate (which was often significantly higher than special discounted rates)
Although, lenders have tentatively started to raise LTV (reduced amount of deposit required), there is evidence, the number of mortgage products could remain limited even as the market recovers.
The UK Treasury have been looking to extend mortgage protection to mortgage lenders who sell mortgages on to third party. This comes after proposals to limit self-certification mortgages, and high income multiples.
It is hoped stronger regulation of mortgages will make it more difficult for the housing market to create a boom situation. However, it will mean first time buyers will need to save a larger deposit in the new climate of stricter mortgage lending.
On a personal note, I benefitted from loose mortgage rules which allowed me to get a mortgage a large income multiple in 2004, but, given the boom and bust we have seen, it does seem to make sense to create a more stable and closely regulated mortgage industry. I’m just glad I’m not trying to buy a house now…
November 26th, 2009 — uk housing market -
2010/11 will be the first fiscal year for sometime to feature a top tax rate of 50%. With national insurance the marginal rate will be as high as 61.5%. If you earn it you will expect to pay tax on it As ever top earners may be able to effect some changes that will help reduce the impact.
November 23rd, 2009 — mortgages -
In June of this year, the Bank of England estimated that 1.1 million homeowners were facing a situation of negative equity. – A situation where the outstanding mortgage is greater than the value of the house. So many face negative equity because of a rapid fall in house prices and the fact many mortgages were sold in the boom times with a low deposit ratio. The situation of negative equity is worse amongst sub prime mortgages, where 1 in 6 mortgages face negative equity. The Northern Rock has the largest % of customers with negative equity. According to Fitch 32% of mortgages in Northern Rock’s Granite account are in negative equity.
If you need to move but are stuck with negative equity what can you do?
Negative equity is the paper loss you may have on a property that was bought for one amount but is now worth less than you paid. If you have no mortgage the paper loss is stood by you when you sell.
If the property is mortgaged for more than the house is now worth then the negative equity trap is a concern to the mortgage company as the loss would mean the mortgage isn’t covered by the property value.
Example you pay £200,000 for a house 3 years ago and have a £180,000 mortgage. The property is now valued at £170,000 due to the slump in values. The value is down £30,000 and you have a loss of £20,000 and there is a further £10,000 negative equity between the mortgage value and the realisable value.
It is hard to move home when you have negative equity.
Usually the mortgage company won’t allow the house to be sold unless you have enough spare capital to make up the £10,000 shortfall (the difference between the selling price and the outstanding mortgage).
Crystallising negative equity can damage your credit score.
Coventry Building Society and Nationwide have created a ‘negative equity mortgage’ that allows existing customer to carry forward negative equity if they move house. Up to 25% of the old home value, same or lower total loan, and not trading up are restrictions from Coventry but the scheme seems to be a good one.
Other lenders should and probably will follow suit so it is worth asking your lender if you need to move.
Do not become trapped by negative equity. If you have no new capital to make up the shortfall you may be able to get a family member to guarantee the difference. It may be appropriate to take an unsecured loan to fund the gap but beware the rates charged. Failing all the routes you know pressurise you lender to follow the Coventry Building Society and allow you to carry part of the gap forward to your new property.
Related
November 12th, 2009 — uk housing market -
Much to many people’s surprise, we have seen a recovery in house prices this year. But, it is a recovery lacking conviction or any enthusiasm. A majority of economists still expect house prices to fall in 2010.
As we have often mentioned, the price rises have been mainly due to the shortage of supply on the market, rather than rising demand. This shortage of housing means prices have been squeezed higher by a small number of buyers.
However, the shortage of supply is not the only reason behind the recovery.
The economic recovery is, like the housing market, very uncertain and lacking in conviction. Whilst many feel GDP statistics are wrong, and the economy is actually recovering, few expect a recovery to be anything other than weak.
In particular, firms, banks and consumers are all trying to rectify their balance sheets – pay off debt and increase savings. This will depress spending and the housing market into next year.
November 6th, 2009 — economics -
The UK has experienced its longest post war recession, and the deepest since the Great Depression. Importantly, the UK recession has lasted longer than our main competitors. Whilst members of the Euro like Germany and France are experiencing positive growth, the UK remains stuck in recession.
The UK economy has suffered the most because of its reliance on the financial markets and an asset (housing) boom. The government and monetary authorities must be pretty dissapointed at the sluggish response of the economy. They have done as much as they can with fiscal and conventional monetary policy. Even the scope of quantitative easing is one of the most radical amongst Western nations. (though some commentators say by just buying gilts and not corporate bonds, the impact of UK QE has been diminished.)
Whilst other countries are considering raising interest rates, that looks a long way off for the UK. Any tightening of the economy will need to come from tax rises to deal with the burgeoning debt. (see: prospects for UK Interest rates)
Furthermore, despite a 20% depreciation in sterling, the UK retains a persistent trade deficit suggesting an underlying imbalance in the economy. Since the credit crunch there are less capital flows to finance a current account deficit. Therefore there we may need to have to be a further depreciation to boost exports relative to imports.
Another factor in the equation is the scale of government debt and the purchase of government gilts. This has potential to worry markets and raise future inflationary pressures.
Given these factors the prospects for Pound Sterling looks pretty grim. Low interest rates and quantitative easing will weaken sterling and the government’s fiscal position will not help. The trade deficit just adds to the gloom behind sterling.
The saving grace for Sterling may be the relative weakness of our competitors. The Euro is starting to look prohibitively expensive, at least for south European economies like Spain and Ireland. Though the Eurozone is emerging from recession, it still looks pretty weak. The ECB takes a fundamentalist approach to keeping inflation low, but, even the ECB will be hard pressed to justify rate increases with the Euro economy so weak.
The good news for sterling is that the worst may (hopefully) be over. Forward looking surveys on confidence show improvements. The recent rise in manufacturing output and car sales give hope a real recovery could materialise next year.
It is hard to make predictions because the current situation is exceptional with no real precedent. Alot will depend on the nature of recovery. If the UK’s growth continues to be weaker than our competitors sterling will continue its downward slide. But, if the UK grows quicker than expected and confidence is restored in the UK people may switch back to Pounds. But, overall, I think the most likely scenario is that the Pound will remain weak. Alot of us could be spending our summer holidays in old Blighty rather than paying to goto Euroland.
November 4th, 2009 — finance -
Recently, I was victim of identity theft. The good news is that two companies very.co.uk and Halifax both recognised the fraudulent application and so the identity thief was not able to use my details to open fake accounts.
There is lots of good information at UK Fraud Service CIFAS After this incident, an extra password has been put in place for anyone opening a new password. These are some tips to avoid Identity Fraud
There are so many ways your identity can be detrimentally damaged and this will give you some tips to protect yourself against others.
On Line Protection
